Arctic Blast To Slam The U.S.; Sakhalin Blizzards; Scientists Say Global Warming Could Cool The UK; UN Wildfire Lies; + Sunspot 3981

Cap Allon

Arctic Blast To Slam The U.S.

January was cold across the CONUS, historically so.

The Climate Prediction Center did NOT see it coming…


Looking ahead, February is set to offer a repeat.

Another Arctic outbreak—colder than even that of January—threatens to grip the majority of the U.S. come mid-month, especially the Midwest, Plains, and Great Lakes regions, as per latest ECMWF models (see below).

Cities like Chicago, Minneapolis, and Kansas City are currently on for record-breaking lows, with southern states like Texas and Georgia not spared either.


Driving this frigid blast is a disruption in the ‘Polar Vortex’, as seen in the 500 hPa temperature chart (below), which will allow brutally cold air from the Arctic to surge deep into the Lower 48:


The 50 hPa geopotential height anomalies highlight significant stratospheric disturbances, often associated with prolonged cold spells in the Northern Hemisphere:


Rug up America—again.

Updates to follow…


Sakhalin Blizzards

Blizzards are continuing in Sakhalin, Russia, triggering what locals are calling a “snow apocalypse.”

Massive snowdrifts have shattered windows and brought road traffic to a standstill.

Residents are digging themselves out from beneath the heavy snow, while utility crews work tirelessly to manage the overwhelming conditions.


Eastern Asia is currently holding anomalously cold, with the freeze running from Russia, down through Mongolia, and into China, the Koreas, and Japan.


Scientists Say Global Warming Could Cool The UK

Brits were told to expect endless heatwaves and “forever hotter” summers. Now, after a freezing January (-0.4C below 1961-1990 average — Met Office), The Science™ says global warming might actually make the UK colder. A lot colder.

Scientists foot the blame at the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which might slow down or collapse, plunging the UK into Arctic conditions. Or it might not. They’re not all that sure.

The same experts who warned of a scorched UK now say bitter, ice age-like cold could be on the cards, but insist that both outcomes are proof of climate change.

AMOC measurements only started in 2004, but that’s long enough for wild and terrifying predictions to do the MSM rounds.


A recent study, however, published in Science Advances highlights the massive uncertainties in predicting climate tipping points like AMOC.

Conducted by scientists from the Technical University of Munich and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, the study reveals that forecasting these so-called tipping points is riddled with errors due to oversimplified models, scarce long-term data, and incomplete historical records.

Predictions for AMOC’s collapse range wildly, it turns out—from 2050 to 8065. That’s a 6,000-year window, rendering these forecasts useless for policymaking.

Yet, media outlets run with the most dramatic scenarios, ignoring the uncertainty behind them and, worst still, ignoring the real-world data.

Both Arctic temperatures and sea ice show stability, not impending disaster (see charts below). Since the early 2000s, Arctic temperatures have shown modest fluctuations around a stable mean. Similarly, sea ice extent has followed natural, cyclical patterns, with no evidence of a “catastrophic melt.”


An AMOC collapse would be “like a war situation,” so says Prof. Tim Lenton of the University of Exeter, ignoring the slim chance of it actually occurring in our lifetimes. Because when the science is shaky, fear fills the gaps. And climate alarmism, however unfounded, will always make deadlines.

[BBC]


Heatwave? Climate change. Deep freeze? Climate change. The solution? Cut emissions. Different weather, same agenda. No matter how contradictory the evidence, the prescription stays the same: more regulations, more taxes, more panic.

For the UK, the short-term outlook calls for continued cold through February, with widespread snow potentially returning mid-month. In typically hyperbolic fashion, the media is calling this ‘Beast from the East 2’.


UN Wildfire Lies

Despite recent claims by the UN, wildfires are not on the rise globally.


Advances in satellite technology, particularly NASA’s MODIS sensors on the Terra (1999) and Aqua (2002) satellites, have greatly improved our ability to monitor fires accurately. The Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) uses MODIS data to estimate fire activity through CO2 emissions, which correlate with burned vegetation.

In recent decades, both the number of fires and the total burned area decreased significantly. In fact, burned areas declined by 24.3% between 1998 and 2015, driven by increased vegetation productivity in North Africa and global agricultural expansion.


This trend has continued through 2024:


And it extends back a lot further than 1998:


The UN are guilty of spreading MiSiNfOrMaTiOn.


Sunspot 3981

Sunspot 3981 is rapidly expanding and now positioned directly facing Earth, firing off intense solar flares.



On Feb 3 at 03:58 UT, it unleashed an M8.8-class flare—just shy of reaching the powerful X-class threshold. Updated SOHO coronagraphs will tell us if any CMEs are headed for Earth. For the latest info, check out spaceweather.com.

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